Viktor Orban’s dilemma – Russian oil or Trump’s favour

Reuters Viktor Orban and Donald Trump shake hands with Trump appearing to be saying something as he faces Orban. Both men are dressed in suits with a white background

There is a war-opposing network in the world, with two focal points: one of power led by the US president and one of spirit found here with the Holy Father,” Viktor Orban said on Monday after meeting Pope Leo at the Vatican.

“We draw strength, motivation, and blessing from both,” said the Hungarian prime minister.

If his ally in the White House, US President Donald Trump, was on his mind, then his thoughts could well have turned to a tricky meeting that awaits him next week in Washington.

The man Trump has called a “great leader”, and who has long provoked admiration in MAGA circles, suddenly finds himself in an unusual position – at odds with the US president on an issue of critical importance.

At the centre of those talks will be new US pressure on Hungary and Slovakia to wean themselves urgently off Russian oil – Trump’s latest gambit in his efforts to pressurise Russia into ending its war on Ukraine.

Asked recently whether Trump had gone too far in imposing sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Orban said “from a Hungarian point of view, yes”.

Orban has been using his country’s heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas to advance his own agenda in several ways.

He has used it as a weapon to attack Brussels, as a means to maintain his good relations with Moscow, and as a platform upon which he hopes to win re-election next April in Hungary. He has promised “cheap Russian energy” to voters.

He will go into this election portraying himself as a safe pair of hands in an increasingly uncertain world. But Orban is trailing in most opinion polls, after his government was shaken by the meteoric rise of opposition Tisza party leader Peter Magyar.

The Hungarian PM has also been angered by repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on the Druzhba pipeline this summer, which briefly disrupted supplies to his country.

Senior Hungarian officials have been hinting for months that they believe the war in Ukraine could be over by the end of the year – a seemingly absurd claim, until news of a planned summit in Budapest between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin broke earlier this month.

But Orban’s carefully laid plans began to unravel on 21 October, when the White House announced that the summit had been called off.

Orban’s government had been secretly working on the summit plans for months. Balazs Orban, Orban’s political director (no relation), enjoys close relations with US Vice-President JD Vance, and is believed to have played an important role.

Orban hopes to persuade Trump to ease the pressure on Hungary at least until the election when the pair meet in Washington next week.

The Hungarian government appears to be counting on the idea that Trump is bored by the war in Ukraine, and wants to turn his back on it if no deal is done soon.

Orban has sharply opposed Western military and financial support for Ukraine, and rules out Ukraine’s membership of Nato and the EU. He portrays Trump as a pro-peace president, giving short shrift to what he sees as the warmongers of the EU.

The climax of the cancelled summit in Budapest would have been the moment he appeared on the balcony of the Carmelite Convent on Castle Hill, overlooking the Danube, flanked by Presidents Trump and Putin. How could Hungarians vote against such an internationally successful leader, he might have asked.

In Rome on Monday, despite US dismissals, Orban insisted the summit would still happen – it was just a question of time. At the weekend, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov quietly suggested the same.